Honestly, it's the most cliche title for an alternate history I could ever come up with (you just examine what you're missing and put "For Want of..." in front of it) but I'll dedicate this little piece to Chelsea and she can bring it to her Modern China and Japan class.
First of all, a disclaimer: there are many essays and books written about what might have happened if the United States decided not to unleash atomic weaponry onto the Japanese and instead invaded the islands. The only examples I can think of off the top of my head however are "No Bomb: No End" by Richard B. Frank, and "1945" by Robert Conroy. Virtually any historian will readily ensure that to choose not to use atomic weapons on Japan would only have increased the American deathtoll to another half million lives and countless Japanese military and civilian casualties. That's not what I wanted to think about here:
August 1945. Nazi Germany laid in ashes. Italy was a democratic ally again. The Japanese Empire was the only Axis nation left standing, and it was in pieces. The American forces were firebombing Japanese cities since February, but now had a decision to make. President Truman needed to find a way to force the Japanese to surrender. One trick he had up his sleeve was the Manhattan Project.
Atomic Weaponry was entirely new and the total power of such a weapon was still undetermined. The other option is Operation: Olympic. In Olympic, the American forces would invade the southern most island of Japan, Kyushu, and begin to fight their way northward. Soon after, Operation: Coronet would begin to capture Tokyo.
The estimates for an invasion of Japan are catastrophic. President Truman begins thinking that maybe the A-bomb would be better saved for another time. Whatever his reasoning (American lives, the Soviet threat, Japanese honor, etc.) his answer is this: "Let them rot."
The US Navy blockades the entirety of Japan. The Imperial Navy has no ships what to speak of. Any attempt by Kamikazes to down an American battleship or aircraft carrier is met with deadly anti-air fire or the alert American pilots. The Japanese Army in Manchuria is smashed to pieces by the Soviet Union just as the Empire begins to feel the effects of an American blockade. The Japanese offer a peace settlement to the Americans. MacArthur (without consulting the President) refuses, insisting that nothing but unconditional surrender will do.
In order to head off the Soviets from taking all of East Asia, the Americans fly in one of their greatest land Generals: George S. Patton. MacArthur takes care of the Japanese blockade, while Patton is given control of the same Marines who took Iwo Jima and some 450,000 army men (many reserve, others veterans) and is given the plans for Operation East Wind. In coordination with MacArthur's blockade, Patton and his army land in Incheon, Korea and fight the Japanese forces all the way to the Yalu River.
Patton himself sets up a puppet Korean government with a monarch at its head with a relatively weaker legislative behind it. He doesn't care, he just needs something in place which can control the Korean people, who are now hailing in the Americans as liberators. Fortunately, there's no Iraq situation: the American army will be leaving soon to head into China.
The Soviets, on the other hand, have cleaned up Manchuria and are preparing their port at Vladivostok to head into Hokkaido, the most northern island of Japan. By September, Hokkaido suffers the same fate as Manchuria: a half million Japanese civilians are dead. The Japanese send another peace settlement to MacArthur... he refuses it again. Unconditional surrender only.
The Soviets have taken Hokkaido and their mouths drool with bloodlust for Honshu, the main island. September 1945, the Soviets invade Honshu, the Americans take Port Arthur without firing a shot. With a garrison of American troops in Port Arthur, they head into Mainland China, working through Peking and fighting their way south all the way to Nanking. Eventually, the Americans rendezvous with the Koumintang (China's Nationalist forces) and agree that the Chinese Communists need to be taken out.
In Japan, the death toll begins rising to levels unhead of, and the Soviet machine is in no way ready to stop. Emperor Hirohito comes out to the Japanese people, who still think he's a god, and declares that Tojo and the rest of the military leaders are only in it for their own good. The civilians "take care" of the Military government when Hirohito sends his unconditional surrender to MacArthur.
The Admiral finally accepts and brings his forces to occupy Tokyo. In October 1945, World War II is finally over. The peace agreements are what will be the difficult part: Korea is in full control of the Americans... but Japan is now divided. The Soviets and Americans agree that the 38th Parallel will be the dividing line between a Communist North Japan and a Democratic South Japan. The capital Tokyo however is in South Japan. The Soviets demand they be given an occupation zone in Tokyo... after all, they've earned it. The Americans comply and give the Soviets half the city.
China is a tricky question. The Americans demand that since the Japanese forces were ousted completely by the Americans, that they let China decide for themselves what they want to do. After all, the Koumintang is already in control of all China. In modern terminology this would be a “dick move” but the Soviets respond in kind: they’ll let China decide for itself… as long as Manchuria can decide for itself.
China is in control of the Nationalists. Manchuria however, is under Soviet control. After Patton and Chiang Kai-Shek kicked the Communists out of China, they all retreated to Manchuria. The Americans bit the bullet and accept.
What does East Asia look like in 1946?
A North and South Japan. North is controlled by a Communist regime set up by the Soviets. South Japan is being reconstructed by the Americans. Korea is completely united and is a staunch American ally. The Republic of China is an American ally and is under democratic control. The People’s Republic of China (more commonly referred to as Manchuria) is under control of Mao Tse-Tung and suffers from Mao’s Great Leap Forward.
Back in the United States, 1948 is a huge election year. The Republicans throw out Thomas Dewey in place of General George Patton, the conquering hero of Europe and Asia. The Democrats are in disarray and instead of a surprise swing to President Truman, 1949 begins instead with a President Patton. Soon, however, he’s informed of the Soviet’s successful testing of a nuclear weapon. Patton, never one to be shown up, is just looking for a conflict to show off American weaponry: the same ones that President Truman refused to use on Japan.
12/13/08
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