10. Lincoln 01/05/09

I compiled a list of the 10 most important people in history. Whether you think they are or not is your job to debate, I'm going to do my job and subtract them completely from history and examine the Alternate History that follows.

Note: "Important" qualifies as having a profound enough effect throughout the world to affect centuries politically, culturally, economically, socially, and in some instances scientifically and religiously.

#10. Lincoln

Let's start in 1808. A newborn baby dies on his first day of life in Kentucky.

The effects of Lincoln's absence aren't noticed until 1845. Lincoln would have been a Representative from Illinois to protest the Mexican-American War. He would have demanded to know which exact spot American blood was spilled on American soil. Instead, that job is left to Georgia Senator Robert Toombs and former President John Q. Adams who lead the rest of the Whigs against the war.

No big changes.

1858, Senator Stephen A. Douglas is up for reelection in Illinois. He wins decisively against a rather unknown candidate without any huge formal debates he would otherwise have had from a certain Republican.

1860, a big election year. Senator Douglas seeks the Democratic nomination for President against a southerner: John C. Breckenridge. The Democratic Party splits. The southern wing nominates Breckenridge while the northern wing nominates Douglas. A compromise forms under John Bell with the Constitutional Union Party while the Republicans are still debating a candidate to nominate.

It's hard to determine who the Republicans might have picked otherwise. The other three nominees, William Seward, Salmon P. Chase, and Edward Bates, each found a way to divide the party against themselves. Lincoln became a compromise candidate. However, perhaps Seward, the front runner in 1860, might have gotten a little smarter and not given such a radical speech. Either way, a Republican is sure to win in either 1860 or 1864. Economic and political conditions are just too in place for it to happen.

This means a Civil War is inevitable. Since the signing of the Constitution, it was evident. The only guess work is, how does such a war play out?

Probably in much the same way. If the war takes place in 1864-1869, then we can be sure that the north will win. There are plenty of immigrants recently come over from Europe, which in turn increases the industrial capacity of the north, giving them more weapons, and more resources to fight a rebellion.

So let's go with that. The Republicans finally decide on William Seward. The Democrats play up a war scare, "If you elect the Republicans, we'll go to war!" There's no clear cut winner (with four parties, that's pretty easy) and the election is thrown into the House, thanks to the Constitution. Since Bell cannot run (only the top 3 candidates) his states switch to Douglas. Douglas wins 14 states over Seward's 8 and Breckenridge's 11.

Douglas has a fine Presidency. Balancing north and south, passing legislation for popular sovreignty. However, as we've already discussed, political and economic forces are at work and a Republican (certainly a more moderate candidate than Seward) is elected. The south secedes, realizing they didn't cast a single vote for the Republican and feel powerless. The Civil War begins.

Does this new President issue an Emancipation Proclamation? Perhaps. Perhaps not. He might not issue it as eloquently as Lincoln did: ending slavery only in the states still in rebellion, instead including all states. Or he might issue it at the wrong time. But what's most likely is his top concern would be saving the Union, not defeating slavery. So the Emancipation Proclamation is put on hold.

The War is won in 1869. Many slaves have been freed, but not all of them. One by one in the 1870s, the states now under Reconstruction abolish slavery. However, without an Emancipation Proclamation, the basis for Constitutional Amendments banning slavery, granting citizenship to freedmen, and black suffrage may be lost for decades.

America would become an official apartheid state.

Of course, this seems to affect only the United States. But looking at the wider world, not issuing the Proclamation and subsequent Constitutional Amendments could prolong slavery not just into the 1870s, but maybe even the 1880s in some states. Or perhaps the new governments in the south see slavery as the only profitable way to recover their lost economy and work through the system to keep it.

Either way, this changes the way all other "civilized" countries look at the United States. Britain and France especially, who were becoming the big Imperial players as colonization in Africa heated up.

Without Lincoln, a more conservative Republican government could take hold of the nation well through the 1870s through to the 1900s. America may just stay out of the European War in 1917, condemning Germany for the submarine warfare, but wanting in no way to get involved. We probably wouldn't even want to send weapons to Britain to get involved in the first place.

Without the United States entering World War I, our military never gets the boost it needs to earn the name of a World Power. Our relations with Europe decline as the war drags on well into 1919 and 1920 when Germany finally breaks through the Allied lines and marches into Paris. Britain gives up and concedes to the Kaiser's wishes, granting them certain African colonies as they take plenty of French and Belgian territory as well.

American involvement with Europe is barely reduced to formalities as we continue to grow a more prosperous business relationship with Japan. Both Japan and the United States are concerned about the Soviet threat and invade the Russian Far East. The war is short-lived and a failure but it effectively creates a Red Scare in the United States. The booming American economy, based in Japanese investments, continues through the 1920s and 1930s, not keeping track of the blatant oppression taking place on their own soil south of the Mason-Dixon line.

Meanwhile in Europe, the investments that Germany put into defeated France fails. A Depression falls heavily onto Europe and Africa, but since America investments weren't in France, it passes North America.

The Japanese are slowing their purchase of American oil. American's aren't very pleased, but times are still good. Soon enough, purchase begins again as the Japanese wage war on China.

In Europe, the defeated French and British turn to more conservative hard-line governments that demand retribution for the humiliation they suffered in the Great War. America has no issue with Europe, and profits are coming straight in from the Japanese. Times are good in America going into the 1940s. But the world around us is aflame.

Of course, all that isolation makes the rest of the world jealous and things could easily turn heads if the Japanese think we should be out of the Pacific completely, or if the Germans think we need to help them against the Allies.

While we avoided the Great Depression, America could be facing a worse war than the real-history World War II. And to top it off, with no military to back it up.

01/05/09